Why Fall is UGG’s Time to Rise (HBBIP #13)

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We’ve covered a lot of stuff in the first twelve weeks of this newsletter that could be described, if you’re in a particularly uncharitable frame of mind, as “basic.” Yes, I’ve spent more time than I could have ever anticipated discussing Taylor Swift and Pumpkin Spice Lattes, Erewhon smoothies and donut-esque skincare. Sometimes I talk about sports, but even then I’m usually talking about sports as they relate to Taylor Swift. Also, those sports newsletters tend to draw lower open rates than the other ones, but surely that’s a coincidence.

Here are some other terms you could use to describe these “basic” subjects:

• Popular
• Enduring
• Phenomena unto themselves
• Highly profitable
• Good for newsletter open rates

As highlighted in my Stanley profile last week, the so-called “basic” market has been a game changer for brands across multiple verticals. By tapping into young female consumers, brands are supercharging growth and enjoying unprecedented success on social media. 

So sure, maybe these subjects draw scorn from people who fit my general demographic description—angry young men whose lives consist of a joyless morass of protein powder and fantasy football—but guess what, fellas? We’re on the losing side. 

Plus, come on now. These “basic” things are popular for a reason. They’re good. I’m on record as liking Erewhon smoothies when someone else is paying for them. Taylor Swift writes some bops, or so I’ve been told by like eighty of my female coworkers. And I’ve never tried a PSL, so that’s not a great example, but how bad could they be?

All this is to say that now I’m going to talk about UGG.

I don’t know why wanting your feet to be both comfy and stylish became part of the culture wars, but I regret to inform you that according to the internet, if you like UGG, you are basic. But don’t worry: you’re not alone. In fact, studies suggest that not only are there a ton of other basic consumers out there, but that we all get a little more basic during the most basic season of all—fall, of course.

Don’t believe me? Well, maybe you’ll believe this graph:

Earned Media Value for UGG January - October  2023

Look, it’s smiling! That’s UGG’s EMV tracing a pretty clear pattern from January to October. While UGG might say “It’s Always UGG Season” right there on its website, we all know the truth: fall is UGG’s true season. After all, you tend not to crave fur around your ankles in the summer months.

Related: 2024 Influencer Marketing Trends Report

Still don’t believe me? We should probably have a talk about your trust issues, but before we do, take a look at another graph:

UGG Earned Media Value from 2020 - 2023, with notable upswings in 2023

Now we have some historical data to back up our claim. It certainly appears that UGG experiences a consistent surge during the autumn and winter months, and that this surge has been growing steadily more powerful. Though our data cuts off in October 2023, UGG is poised for its biggest season yet.

Alright, so now we know that much like the swallows returning to Capistrano, consumers flocking to UGG at the first sign of an orange leaf is a beautiful yearly tradition. But what is UGG doing to drive engagement each autumn? How have they managed to not only keep the momentum going, but build it into something that’s bigger than ever?

By my highly scientific reckoning, there are three main main factors:

1. Giveaways & Deals

A quick glance at UGG’s most impactful posts from October 2023 reinforces one clear conclusion: there sure are a ton of giveaways going on. UGG netted $28.7M EMV in October, and its top six posts by EMV, which together accounted for $1.3M EMV, all advertised UGG giveaway contests run by creators like Daryl-Ann Denner and Danielle Eilers. This giveaway content represented a notable surge compared to September, when posts tagged “giveaway” accrued just $277.0k EMV.

When creators weren’t raffling off UGG products, they were offering their followers other ways to get them for cheap. Content advertising “deals” drove an additional $843.0k EMV, with posts from both creators sharing affiliate codes and partnered organizations like The Nordstrom Rack advertising savings ahead of Black Friday and the holiday shopping season.

2. Celebrity Partnerships & Branded Events

I’ll admit it: as one of those sports-watching, spiteful fellas I mentioned earlier, my primary association with UGG prior to writing this newsletter was when a lot of people made fun of Tom Brady for partnering with them. (Granted, my girlfriend does also keep a pair of UGG slippers at my apartment, so this is one brand that’s managed to invade my personal space, but I feel like if I keep mentioning all these basic brands that my girlfriend likes, she’s going to start seeming imaginary. I already told you, she goes to a different school!)

Anyway, back to Tom Brady. After his blockbuster team-up with the brand in 2016, Mr. Can’t Beat Eli Manning in a Super Bowl evidently isn’t posting about UGG anymore, or at least he hasn’t so far in 2023. Though the GOAT has moved onto greener pastures, there’s a new celebrity superstar spokesperson on the farm: Cardi B. Which probably would have been your first guess, given the Brady partnership. I mean, it’s a pretty natural progression from one to the other.

This year, the Tom Brady of contemporary female rappers officially rang in “UGG Season” on the autumnal equinox, and I want everyone to take a moment and appreciate that particular arrangement of words. Cardi B and her husband Offset, aka the Gisele Bündchen of contemporary male rappers, celebrated the beginning of fall at UGG’s Feel House, a branded pop-up in Brooklyn “dedicated to making self-expression comfortable for all.” We love our branded pop-ups to have a noble cause, don’t we folks?

After not posting about UGG from January to August, Cardi B arrived right on time, driving $463.3k EMV in September and October as one of the brand’s top five earners during those months.

3. Leaning Into the Season

Generally, brands know when they’ve hit upon something good. It’s no secret that UGG and cold weather go together like Tom Brady and Cardi B, so why not build whole campaigns around it? That’s precisely what UGG did with its #UGGSeason branding, as well as the high volume of content about UGG tagged #FallFashion. While #UGGs did ultimately rank as the brand’s top EMV-driving hashtag with $9.9M EMV, #FallFashion wasn’t that far behind with $8.3M EMV. 

What’s more, the progress of the two hashtags mirrored each other, with #FallFashion overtaking #UGGs in September and October. Here’s another graph to make you believe me:

The EMV accrued by #UGGs and #FallFashion in 2023

As goes #FallFashion, so goes Ugg. Fun fact: from March to June 2023, #FallFashion garnered a grand total of just $1.0k EMV, with $0 EMV coming in May. I don’t know who was out there posting about #FallFashion in April, but kudos to you for creating the kind of content you wanted to see in the world.

While #UGGs and #FallFashion ranked as UGG’s top two hashtags, #UGGSeason came in a little behind at No. 7, accruing $5.1M EMV. You can probably guess the shape of its month-by-month EMV, but you know I love me some up-and-to-the-right, so here we go:

#UGGSeason Earned Media Value in 2023

Thanks to its cohesive brand identity, a new celebrity champion, and a well-executed pop-up campaign, this fall has proved an UGG Season to remember. While UGG’s EMV speaks for itself, its Engagement relative to previous autumns is through the roof. Compared to fall 2022, UGG’s fall 2023 EMV is roughly 30% larger. But by pure Engagement, the brand has almost doubled its results:

UGG Engagement Levels, 2020 - 2023

So tip your boots and slippers—basic or not, UGG Season is a force to be reckoned with. And this force is only growing more powerful: previous UGG seasons have seen their EMV peak in November, December, or even January. In other words, this fall is just the beginning. Winter 2023 might get even UGGlier.

This Week’s Headlines

Marketers, for One, Welcome Our New Machine Overlords

Key Takeaways:

• • The Drum’s got a sick new beat: reporting on a recent online survey of marketers and creators conducted by micro-influencer platform SocialPubli. The survey, titled ‘AI in Influencer Marketing 2023,’ found that AI is already playing a key role in operations from both creators and marketers, and that both groups are optimistic about AI’s future impact on the industry.
  • Notable findings include that 71% of creators and 82% of marketers “regard AI as an opportunity for growth and success.” What’s more, 52% of creators and 76% of marketers are already using AI within their work.
  • Interestingly, almost 30% of creators follow or engage with virtual creators. Still waiting on jetpacks and flying cars, but hey, the future has arrived.

The CIQ Perspective:

• • SocialPubli’s findings jibe with our own Trends Report, which found that 66% of our brand, agency, and creator respondents had used AI over the past year. Amongst this cohort of fearless, tech-savvy marketers, 42% were using AI for social media captions, while 36% were using it for general brainstorming.
  • We anticipate more prominent roles in brand campaigns for those virtual creators. According to SocialPubli, 62% of marketers would work with virtual creators, though 28% have done so thus far. However, of this 28%, 22% reported positive experiences—which is probably more than can be said of working with flesh-and-blood creators, amirite? (Just kidding, creators, we love you.)
  • For the record, I have not yet used AI to write any of these newsletters. I don’t think anyone would notice the shift in tone, as ChatGPT is notoriously very funny. Once it gets past puns, I’m probably out of a job, so I’ll enjoy all this while I can.
    
    

Conor’s Corner

If there’s anyone on earth who lives, breathes, and truly believes in the Creator Economy, it’s Conor Begley: CreatorIQ’s Chief Strategy Officer, and a burgeoning creator in his own right. When he’s not hitting up four time zones during 81 hours of travel across nine days, Conor shares his exclusive research on trending creator marketing stories with his followers on LinkedIn. But you can check out his latest findings right here.

This week, Conor offers his own take on Stanley’s viral moment, which we discussed in this newsletter last week. It’s too good to talk about just once:

In case you somehow missed this, Stanley—home to the viral Quencher tumbler that’s taken social media by storm—made headlines last month after a woman’s car was destroyed by a fire, and the only thing left standing was her trusty Stanley cup. Danielle Lettering took to TikTok in a now viral video posted on November 15th (with over 88 MILLION VIEWS!) that shows how the insulated cup didn’t just survive the fire—it still had ICE in it.

Following this viral moment came another: Stanley’s global president, Terence Reilly, responded the next day in a video from the brand’s account, telling Danielle that they’d not only be sending her more Stanley tumblers, but replacing her car as well. 

Turns out that Stanley succeeded not only in keeping Danielle’s drink cold, but also in warming the hearts of millions, who rushed to the video’s comment section to praise the brand for its quick and generous response. I have to give my own kudos to the Stanley team for this masterclass in creating meaningful moments with consumers.

Naturally, I was curious what impact this viral moment had on Stanley’s EMV. As you can see in the graph below, on the day following Stanley’s response (11/17), the brand’s EMV spiked to an impressive $485.5k EMV, as more and more viewers and news publications caught wind of the story. 

This got me interested in Stanley’s history and EMV trajectory prior to this viral moment. How did a company that historically targeted workmen and outdoor enthusiasts become the drinkware of choice for millennial women? Long story short: with the organic endorsements of three women on their popular shopping blog, The Buy Guide. It’s a really fascinating story, and Retail Dive recently published a great article about it, which you can read here (or read a recap of our HBBIP coverage here). It’s an incredible example of a brand listening to who its audience ACTUALLY is and pivoting to serve that loyal fanbase, rather than focusing on winning over the demographic that the brand originally marketed to.

And it’s paid off: Stanley’s EMV and community growth have been astronomical over the past few years. Let’s look at the numbers: 

2020: $992k EMV (up 172% YoY), 182 creators (up 86%)
2021: $4.1M EMV (up 317% YoY), 589 creators (up 224%)
2022: $22.3M EMV (up 439% YoY), 3.8k creators (up 541%)

From Jan-Oct of this year, Stanley’s accrued $43M EMV (up 249% YoY) from 5.9k creators (up 117%), far outpacing competitors including Yeti ($33.2M), Camelbak ($14.1M), BrüMate ($12.9M), Hydro Flask ($9.5M), and S’well ($782.9k). 

Other notable metrics from Jan-Oct 2023:

• 15.7k creator posts mentioning Stanley, up 131% YoY
• 348.8M estimated impressions, up 259% YoY 
• 14.8M total engagements, up 366% YoY
• While the majority of Stanley’s EMV ($38.8M) comes from Instagram, TikTok is its fastest-growing channel, up 331% YoY

Clearly, Stanley’s approach to influencer marketing spelled success for the brand well before the viral fire cup moment (Stanley reported that sales for its Quencher tumbler were already up 275% this year), but this recent show of compassion and generosity is sure to skyrocket Stanley’s social media status even further, and I for one can’t wait to see the full data for November. Well done, Stanley team!

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